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voice of the damned

(In response to the discussion at the end of the last page...)

Given France's run-off style of presidential elections, a candidate with?very little support CAN make it into the final? tournament, if the rest of the stars align just right in the first. See 2002 for the most notable case.

But there is no way I would bet money on Melenchon winning the second round, even if he manages to get in.

Sean in Ottawa

voice of the damned wrote:

(In response to the discussion at the end of the last page...)

Given France's run-off style of presidential elections, a candidate with?very little support CAN make it into the final? tournament, if the rest of the stars align just right in the first. See 2002 for the most notable case.

But there is no way I would bet money on Melenchon winning the second round, even if he manages to get in.

Melenchon's chances run about like this -- to get in the second round there needs to be a near tie with two centrist(ish) candidates, Le Pen and Melenchon with Melenchon and Le Pen slightly edging the centrists. Then with a straight up choice between Le Pen and Melenchon, centrist votes may choose to go to Melenchon rather than Le Pen.

Easy to imagine one of the two going in but both? This would require a strong anti-Europe vote. My guess is due to the pro and anti EU axis in voting, Melenchon would rise partly at the cost of Le Pen or visa versa. This means that very likely the final vote will be the centrist pro-Europe against either one of Melenchon or Le Pen. Very doubtful that Melenchon can get a run-off against Le Pen.

The sliver of possibility would be if two centrist candidates remain strong through the first vote -- so that you get Le Pen coming first, Melenchon second, centre/centre right/centre left third, and another centre right/centre left/centre fourth -- all very close. In this scenario you could then have the centre vote have to choose between Melenchon and Le Pen and there is a reasonable chance that they might choose Melenchon. This is very unlikely but not impossible. It would require Melenchon to get about 25% of the vote and have the rest distributed near perfectly. Say LePen 27, Melanchon 25, Centrist 24, Centrist 22, and a couple points to minor candidates.

The reason it is unlikely is that voters seeing the polls will likely move toward the stronger centrist pro EU canddiate to keep one on last ballot. It would take a deadlock so tight that the voters would be unable to make a strategic choice. It would also take Melenchon to get about a quarter of the vote with Le Pen a little more...

iyraste1313

However, the developments in France are now taking us to another level, because of twofactors of fundamental significance. The French people, having spent a number of decades hoping in vain for some improvement through the processes of elections and referenda, has now moved to the phase of direct, dynamic and mass mobilisation of the people. Secondly, the French movement is for the first time directly questioning the political and, indirectly but clearly, the social regime....from globalresearch...revolution returns to Europe...

yes this focus on and hopes with Melenchon...do miss the point...that the present ongoing crisis and collapse of the global capitalist system will not be served by electing some greater reformer type either right or left........

The focus must now be on how to twin the demands for citizen control, with citizen management of the economy and finances, what form will this take!

bekayne

voice of the damned wrote:

For those of you who might have thought that May 68 was a spontaneous outpouring of youthful idealism against?an authoritarian?sociopolitcal order, apparaently it was actually a "coup" that overthrew?all-around good-guy?General De Gaulle. At least according to Sputnik News and globalresearch.ca....

Is this the reverse of the 1968 Color Revolution (the French May) that led to a coup that forced President Charles de Gaulle to resign leaving the Elysee to the “former” Rothschild’s employee (just like Macron) Pompidou?

Is this the reverse of the French Revolution? Is this the real French Revolution?

The context is Sputnik suggesting that the the former Chief Of General Staff General?De Villiers should somehow take power away from Macron in the event?of the current situation evolving into an "emergency". They even call their desired scenario "the reverse of the French Revolution", just so we're all clear about where they stand ideologically.

https://tinyurl.com/y9746ez7

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And the reason this great hero of the left De Villiers quit? Because Macron wouldn't increase the military spending enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_de_Villiers#Disagreement_with_Macro...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Communism is dead in Europe however there is a real possibility that a mass movement dedicated to what might be termed eco-socialism may arise in the face of climate chaos. It seems that France has change driven from below hard wired into its national DNA.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Yellow Vest Women March Throughout France Against Austerity

Women "yellow jackets" all across France are mobilizing on Sunday to present the peaceful parts of the movement to the media that only reports violent events, they say.

Over 50,000 women gathered in front of the Place de la Bastille and in the Place de la République, in Paris, and?others?came together in?Caen, Montceau-les-Mines, and Toulouse to demonstrate against President Emmanuel Macron’s austerity measures, including an increase in gas prices that the president eventually backed down after months of previous street demonstrations.

Organizers in Paris told the media: "Through this first women-only protest we wanted to have another channel of communication other than violence. All the media ever reports is the violence, and we are forgetting the root of the problem” which is the fight against austerity, said one protester, Karen, a 42-year-old nurse from Marseille told France 24.

Women in Toulouse marched with a large banner demanding Macron’s resignation. "Macron, If you do not come, we will come for you", read some of the protest banners. “Macron your goose is cooked, the chicks are in the street,” read other signs.....

iyraste1313

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French Yellow Vest Protesters Urge Supporters To Spark Bank Run With Mass Withdrawals? by?Tyler Durden

Fri, 01/11/2019 - 02:45

NDPP

Sounds interesting. But no url?

iyraste1313

?Tyler Durden...zerohedge.com amongst others I′ve seen

voice of the damned

I didn't find the link advocating a run on the banks. Did find this one, though...

https://tinyurl.com/ybjk7pjs

Guess it's not entirely unexpected that "Deliberate bank runs?are?sound economic policy" and "Build that wall!!" would somehow go together.

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NDPP

The Noose Tightens Around the EU's Neck

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/12/12/noose-tightens-around-...

"And Macron's response may be exactly the thing needed to destroy what is left of Imperial Europe's credibility. Does Brussels even care? Every action they take to try and hold this dysfunctional and tyrannical union together is only tightening the noose around their necks and hastening their eventual demise..."

bekayne

NDPP wrote:

The Noose Tightens Around the EU's Neck

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/12/12/noose-tightens-around-...

"And Macron's response may be exactly the thing needed to destroy what is left of Imperial Europe's credibility. Does Brussels even care? Every action they take to try and hold this dysfunctional and tyrannical union together is only tightening the noose around their necks and hastening their eventual demise..."

https://seekingalpha.com/author/tom-luongo#regular_articles

I am a former research chemist by trade and an Austrian Economist by study and a market analyst by choice. For the past four years I have been a Senior Financial Editor with Newsmax Media publishing my thoughts on where markets, central banks, gold and geopolitics meet and explode.

NDPP

Notice how Bekayne?never does this in the case of the reactionary propaganda?he?and his ilk?post from the Guardian, WaPo or NYT?

bekayne

NDPP wrote:

Notice how Bekayne?never does this in the case of the reactionary propaganda?he?and his ilk?post from the Guardian, WaPo or NYT?

I take requests.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I think the idea is that that's for YOU to do.

Notice how political parties are always criticizing OTHER political parties' statements, but never their own?

NDPP

"The #GiletsJaunes protests today were larger than ever..."

https://twitter.com/YourMarkLubbers/status/1084148244601556995

NDPP

"OK, This will be my thread of the police brutality in France of the #GiletsJaunes protests since November the 17th. This will take me a long time but I don't care. I am going to expose the police brutality going on in France..."

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1085129853509271552

bekayne

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/the-yellow-vests-are-at-the-vangua...

I'd?like to see a debate?between those on the left trying to appropriate the?Gilets Jaunes?and those on the right?trying to appropriate the?Gilets Jaunes. But it'll probably never happen. Neither side would want to admit that "their" movement isn't as large as they claim.

eastnoireast

ian welsh, as usual, is well worth a read.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/two-lessons-from-frances-yellow-vest-protests/

What I want to discuss, however, is WHY they are having some success where unions, for example, could not stop Macron.

No Centralized Control

The great weakness of modern unions is leadership, bank accounts and law.? They are easy to break if the state cooperates with corporations, or by the state alone. You can bribe the leadership, you can scare the leadership, or you can break the union.

Because unions have things like headquarters, leaders and bank accounts the state can simply take all of those things away any time it wants to if the unions don’t have enough internal support in the government to stop them.

This matters because unions tend to have centralized leadership: take out the leadership, get rid of the strike funds, and they can be broken.

The Yellow Vests have none of this. What tiny leadership they have is some facebook pages. They have no united bank account, no buildings, no strike funds, etc… They cannot be broken by a strike on a few people and some pooled resources.

Instead the yellow vests are just whoever wants to show up for any given protest and put on a yellow vest. This causes some problems, yes, but it means that they cannot easily be taken out.

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NDPP

Most interesting. Thanks for posting.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

France 2019: Macron, Yellow Vests and class struggle

As the Yellow Vest movement in France continues its novel and inspiring revolt, Emmanuel Macron could not help expressing his class disdain for ordinary people: at a gala speech on the 11 January, he declared “Too many French people don’t know the meaning of the word ‘effort’. That’s part of the explanation for the present troubles”. This article takes a look at the general significance of Macron and the movement within class struggle in France.

Certainly, on our side, effort has not been lacking! It is unheard of to hold demonstrations in dozens of towns across the country on the weekend between Christmas and the New Year, but the Yellow Vest movement managed this, and succeeded, on 12 January, with one of the biggest waves of protests yet.

Imaginative and symbolic direct action has inspired all those who want smug-faced Macron thrown out of his palace. Motorways and ferry ports – and a horse racecourse - have been blockaded again, as well as some regional police headquarters and town halls, and one of Macron’s MPs woke up one morning to find their house entrance bricked up.

Early January, one minister was made to scurry out the back door of his ministry, as demonstrators smashed in his front door with a handy forklift truck. He later squealed something about “extreme violence threatening the Republic”.

Meanwhile, the 24-hour lies and distortions of much of the media have been challenged by demonstrations in front of TV headquarters, and blockades stopped delivery of at least three regional newspapers this week, including Ouest France. A right-wing news channel, BFM, refused to cover some demonstrations due to barracking by unhappy Yellow Vests. At the same time, Google and Amazon have been targeted by “Pay your taxes!” pickets.....

Sean in Ottawa

The yellow vest movement could have gone international but was defeated in the international arena.

In France it is a movement largely from the left. In other countries it is being dominated by right and far right forces.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-far-right-is-trying-to-co-opt-the-yell...

It is very possible that this is not a misunderstanding of the movement from those on the right but a purposeful re-definition in order to break the momementum from going international.

NorthReport
NDPP

Videos coming out of France of people withdrawing their money from the big banks! (and vid)

https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1088563285530734592

"A massive French bank run is underway and the mainstream media is nowhere to be seen."

NDPP

'Puppet of Big Banks' (and vid)

https://on.rt.com/9n32

"French hit back at Macron's 'I'm one of you' overture..."

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Vive La France!

https://twitter.com/hashtag/giletsjaunes?lang=en

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Yellow Vest Protests Hit Paris for 11th Week in a Row (LIVE!)

https://www.rt.com/on-air/449817-yellow-vest-paris-protest/

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bekayne
iyraste1313

The Gilet Jaune and ‘France Profonde’

The fight for democracy in the deep countryside

David Studdert

...the face of a new politics, based on local concrete demands...something to watch for everywhere....

how will this be translated into the political economic world...this is the question....

iyraste1313

Macron is a skinny little-trained seal in a circus where we cannot even see the ringmaster. Trump dances in his clown suit, the Brit leadership hop aboard a Brexit bicycle meant to distract, and Europe’s dancing big top whores do the “can-can” dance to the surrounding audience – the rest of us. We’re mesmerized by it all, by the show of shapely legs and firey rings tossed in the air. But the reality is blood for money, and the Yellow Vests’ boos are muffled by the wild cheers of New Yorkers or Londoners bored fleckless by austere existence. For me, I would like to know the deals underneath, not to prevent them necessarily, but just to hear what and how these men justify the unjustifiable. Cyprus’ Nicos Anastasiades and Macron? The lever the globalists are applying on Egypt? What role are those silent Israeli psychopaths playing in all this? Even experts can only surmise. But what we do know for certain, is that none of these people have the slightest concern for you, me, or the rest of humanity.

And that, my friends, is the “I told you so” you should have harkened to when Marine Le Pen got run out of the show.
https://journal-neo.org/2019/01/31/dear-france-i-told-you-le-pen-really-mattered/

voice of the damned

What role are those silent Israeli psychopaths playing in all this?

Probably not much, insofar as none of the issues enumerated elsewhere in the paragraph has anything to do with Israel, Palestine, the middle east, or even foreign-policy generally. ?

EDIT: Well, he does mention Egypt. Not sure how that connects to the yellow vests or Franco-German relations, though.

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epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Gilets Jaunes “Assembly of Assemblies” calls for massive strike

We, Gilets Jaunes of the roundabouts, parking lots, squares, assemblies and demonstrations, gathered on January 26 and 27 for an “Assembly of Assemblies”, which united members of over a hundred Gilets Jaunes delegations from across France, all answering the call of the Gilets Jaunes of Commercy.

Since November 17, 2018, from the smallest villages deep in the country side to the biggest cities of France, we rose up against this deeply violent, unjust and unbearable society. We shall no longer be treated that way! We revolt against the cost of life, poverty, instability and misery. We wish for our relatives, friends, families and children, that they all will be able to live in dignity. Currently, 26 billionaires possess as much as half of the world population — this is totally unacceptable.

Let’s share wealth and not misery! Down with the social inequalities! We demand the immediate increase of wages, of the social allowances, of the subsidies and pensions; we demand the unconditional right for lodging, health, education and free public services for all! It is for all these rights that we occupy the roundabouts across the country on a daily basis, that we organize direct actions, demonstrations and arrange public debates. With our yellow vests, we are reclaiming the power to speak, we who never had it before.

quote:

We are as strong as the diversity of our debates. At this very moment, hundreds of assemblies are elaborating and proposing their own demands. These assemblies talk about real democracy, social justice, tax issues, working conditions, ecological justice and the end of discrimination. Among the most debated claims and strategical proposals we find: the end of misery in all its forms, the transformation of the institutions (with projects like the Citizen Initiated Referendum, constituent assembly, the end of the privileges of the elected representatives), the ecological transition (energetic scarcity, industrial pollution), equality and the recognition of anyone no matter what nationality (handicapped people, gender issues, an end to the isolation of the populous suburbs, neighborhoods, rural areas and overseas territories).

We, Yellow Vests, are inviting anyone to join us with their own abilities and capacities. We call to pursue the actions with Act 12 against police violence in front of the police stations and the Acts 13, 14 etc… We call for the continuation of the occupation of the roundabouts and the blocking of the economy, to engage in a massive and unlimited strike starting on February 5, 2019.

We call for the creation of popular committees in the workplaces, in study places and everywhere else in order that this strike could led from the grassroots by the strikers themselves, and not by the unions. Let’s take the matter in our own hands! Don’t stay alone, join us!

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